stevenbradley | January 09, 2009 06:44
Now,
I was not a fan of Barack Obama during the campaign, nor am I now. Yet,
I can truly tell you that I am a big fan of political expert and
writer, Earl Ofari Hutchinson. There is possibly no one in the current
political circles who has written more profoundly and fairly about the
constant waves of change in American politics than Earl Ofari Hutchinson. One of the best reasons I can give for my appreciation of Mr. Hutchinson is his new book, ‘How Obama Won.’ This excellent book is an interesting, fair, understandable and realistic account of the political race that propelled Barack Obama into the White House as America’s first African American President. It has to be one of the best records
of this historic campaign that has been penned and perhaps into the
future, making it a must read for opponents and supporters of Obama alike.
Order your copy today for immediate shippingChapter 16
The Palin Gamble
It
was a foregone conclusion among many observers that if McCain lost two
things would do him in. One of them he couldn't control. That was the
economy, not its collapse, but when it collapsed. In a look at how six
of eight presidents fared since 1948 when the economy went on the rocks
or appeared to go on the rocks, three were beaten and three beat back
their challengers. If the economy went bad toward the end of a
president's term, voters were much more likely to blame and punish not
just the president but also his party.
McCain was not Bush as he pointedly reminded Obama in their last televised debate in October, 2008. But he was the GOP presidential standard bearer, and he had to take the heat for the GOP's real and perceived economic sins. That hurt and hurt bad. McCain's slogans and shouts about country first, along with his subtle and open knocks at Bush and the GOP couldn't change that.
He could do something about his vice-presidential pick and McCain was if anything a good listener. The instant he heard the loud squeals from Republican pro-life hawks that his campaign would be DOA if he dared tried to shove former Homeland Security Chief Tom Ridge or maverick Senator Joe Lieberman on the ticket, he back pedaled fast. Both are moderates on abortion. And that made them anathema to the hawks. Earl Ofari Hutchinson
We'll never know whether McCain's brief float of their names as GOP VP possibilities was a trial balloon, a deft feint, or just loose talk. But it did set things up nicely for Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Despite much talk from McCain's camp and the pro and con pundit chatter touting her as being fresh, young, a reformer, anti-GOP establishment and an ingenious pick, or slamming her as a political school girl novice, and a disastrous pick, the fact was that Palin was on the ticket to assuage the pro-life hawks. But more importantly, she was there to fire up the millions of men and women voters who demand that a GOP presidential candidate firmly oppose abortion. That's the price for their vote.
He also gambled that she could bag a big swatch of disgruntled Hillary Democratic women, rev up the Christian fundamentalists, and burnish his claim to be the Washington outsider. The hope was that social conservatives would flood the polls on Election Day. The problem was that Palin, as events amply showed, was a social conservative with a mini-telephone book of negatives who at times turned out to be SNL laughingstock fodder.
What she gave to the ticket she also took away.
Worse she also put an issue back on the table, Obama’s table that is, that McCain had struggled mightily to take off namely his age and health. A big percentage of voters still said they had huge reservations about McCain, because of his age. This fear led back to Palin. There was stark horror among untold numbers of voters at the thought of having her only a heartbeat away from the presidency.
The Palin pick was the biggest single reason why long time rock solid GOP Party regulars and a slew of Reagan and W. Bush and Bush Sr. appointees did the unprecedented. They jumped ship to back Obama.
However, what about the abortion issue? Could Palin have really helped McCain on this? Several major polls since 2003 have shown that while the abortion question attimes slid lower on the public's issue radar scope, it never has slipped entirely off it. Americans have been almost evenly divided between those who call themselves pro-choice and pro-life. In the five presidential elections between 1984 and 2000 the majority of voters who said abortion was a major issue for them, backed the GOP candidate. Pro-life leaning voters were more likely to dash to the polls to back the GOP candidate.
A Gallup Values and Belief survey in May, 2008 measured the effect of pro and anti-abortion sentiment on the presidential race. It found the pro life voter edge translated out to about a 2 to 3 percent bump up for the GOP presidential candidate.
In a runaway election for either the Democratic or GOP presidential candidate that percent wouldn't mean much. In a tight down to the wire election that percentage jump could be huge.
The dilemma for Obama was how to defuse the pro-life hot box. The obvious counter was to fire up pro choice advocates. They also number in the millions, and an aroused, impassioned plea to them and their march to the polls potentially could give Obama the bump up he needed from the pro choice side. NARAL-Pro Choice America and NOW wasted no time in lambasting McCain and Palin. They called his picking her a cynical ploy and smoking gun proof that he was a rigid extremist on abortion. The blasts were timely, hard hitting, and they worked. They fired up pro choice or pro life men and women voters. That was another Obama plus.
In the end, plopping Palin on the GOP presidential ticket was worse than a gamble. It was a sure loser. And that even included on the GOP’s age old signature issue, abortion.
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